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| Gregory Shamus/Getty Images - Louis Delmas |
As a longtime fan of the Detroit Lions, I am all too familiar with the sentiment shared by the fan-base at this time of year. While their are still games to be played, the Lions are finished for 2012. Last year was a nice break, but this year we are once again forced to look forward to next year.
So over the next several months I will be taking a look at where the Lions roster will be talent-wise and where they are in regards to the salary cap. We will look at some of the potential roster changes ranging from cuts, free agency and even the 2013 NFL Draft.
Going into 2013, the Lions have a lot of decisions to make with a large portion of their personnel hitting free agency. With the widely anticipated flat-cap for the next several seasons, the league-wide salary cap is expected to be $121 million. As it sits now, with all the players that are currently under contract for the 2013 season, the Lions are projected to be at roughly $67.7 million with about $53.3 million of wiggle room.
The Lions will be forced to spend a lot of that just to lock up some of the lesser known, but key components of their team, or risk going into complete rebuilding mode, again. So Let's take a quick look at a list of those players.
As you can see the list is pretty large. Many of these players are not household names, but they must find a way to keep a significant number of them to be competitive in 2013. So let's start on the offensive side of the ball.
Free Agents on Offense
The Lions are really on dealing with a few key contributors on this side of the ball. Those players are Joique Bell, Gosder Cherilus, and Jason Fox. A lot of people may even ask who those players are, but they are indeed key personnel.
Joique Bell, the Detroit native, has proved to be a solid weapon in both the passing game and a power runner, who consistently shows the ability to push the pile. Since LeShoure will probably be the only other returning running back, Bell will surely be retained.
Gosder Cherilus has often been referred to are Cherli-bust. Fans have often been frustrated by his inconsistency and his occasional mental errors, but the Lions probably can not afford to let go of a starting quality tackle at this point. Riley Reiff could easily replace Goz, but he is going to replace Backus.
Which leads us to the next player on the list. Jason Fox was understood to be a project player when he was drafted out of Miami a few years ago. He is a phenomenal talent who was a bit raw and needed to really just focus on getting healthy more than anything. Fox has had a few years to put some of the injuries behind him and it seems that the Lions are still very high on his potential. This is a player that could work his way into the starting lineup in a year or two.
The one player that could wind up on the roster next season is Will Heller. He is a very good blocking tight end and while not flashy, is at least a reliable receiving option. However, I do not see the Lions bringing back Kevin Smith, Dylan Gandy, or Corey Hilliard in 2013.
Free Agents on Defense
The defensive side of ball has had plenty of challenges, but when healthy they are better than people know. However with a critical offseason staring them in the face, that could change drastically.
The Lions whole strategy is to get a quick lead, and let the front four rush the passer. It is a simple strategy, but requires certain pieces to work. The front four is one of the most vital pieces to that puzzle. Detroit offered their best pass rusher, Cliff Avril, a four year contract in their neighborhood of $35 million prior to the season but he turned it down. Coming off his best professional season, he felt he could increase his value with another pro-bowl caliber season. However as the team has struggled, so has Avril. He has played well, but his numbers are down from a year ago. He does have 7.5 sacks, but he has not made anywhere near as impactful plays as he did in 2012. Cliff will probably receive another similar offer from the Lions during the offseason. I would expect them to offer him a deal worth between $6 to $8 million a year.
Cliff's backup is Willie Young. The former 7th round pick was expected to burst onto the scene this year, but has failed to live up to such high expectations, after having a stellar showing in spot duty last year and a sensational preseason. Young is an RFA, but the Lions will definitely try to keep him around for a few more years.
In the middle of the line they will have Fairley and Suh returning, but both Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill are free agents. It is hard to know what kind of money these players will demand, but the reality is that the Lions will need to try to re-sign both of them. Corey Williams has battled some injuries this year, but he has been very underrated on their front, and Hill is a good situational player.
Lawrence Jackson and Kyle Vanden Bosch were big contributors to the their turn around last year, but this year both players have been disappointing. Vanden Bosh at 35 years old, is not the same player he was even a year ago, and Lo-Jack just fails to show up anymore. Lo-Jack shouldn't be re-signed, and despite his leadership, KVB should be released after this season. This would not only free up $5 million in cap space, but it would give the Lions more opportunities to see if Ronnell Lewis is worth developing.
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| Fantasy Knuckleheads - DeAndre Levy |
DeAndre Levy has shined the brightest of the three this season. Levy showed flashes in his first two seasons, but a shift to the middle, then back to the outside set him back. Now Levy has been on the outside for the second consecutive season, and he is thriving. He is more instinctive and explosive, especially in the run game. He must be a priority this offseason. Durant has played well, but he is the most expendable of the three. Levy getting a contract in the $4 million per year range over four years is certainly not out of the question. Durant on the other hand could look for something in the $2-3 million range. Ashley Palmer is the only player on the bubble here, and the Lions could easily keep him around for special teams and depth, but it would have to be a deal in the range of $1.2 million over 2 years. If he wants more than that, he will have to walk.
Now the most hotly debated part of this team is the secondary, and that probably will not change anytime soon. Especially if the Lions don't open up the piggy back this year. They just spent three draft picks to bring in and develop Bill Bentley, Jonte Green, and Chris Greenwood which establish a nice and low cost group of players for the future. But make no mistake, it will cost to keep Chris Houston and Louis Delmas. Many fans can complain about this group, but the reality is that those two players are actually really good. In fact they are the best players that this team has had in either position in a very long time. We would probably have to go all the way back to Ray Crocket and Bennie Blades to find their equals. I was excited when Martin Mayhew fleeced the Falcons by getting Houston for basically nothing. Houston quickly developed into a very reliable and instinctive corner. He is not as physical as I would like, but he does have good anticipation and plays the ball well. Houston is not an elite corner, but he is in the top half of the league. This means that he could easily expect around $4 million per year, and the Lions would be crazy not to pay it.
Louis Delmas is different though, because he is a lightning rod for criticism by the fans. When he was drafted I immediately thought, "great we just drafted the next Bob Sanders!" Then I realized, "oh crap, we just drafted the next Bob Sanders..." Louis Delmas not only looks like Bob, but he plays like him. Fast, physical, high energy, and reckless. You love watching him play, but he leaves you holding your breath a lot. Fans love what he brings to the table, but it feels like he is always on the injury list. This year he has missed considerable time, but in reality he has actually played in 45 of 59 potential games in his career, which is still 76% of the games. That isn't a great percentage, but it is not as bad as many fans actually think it is. He is a dynamic player and they cannot afford to lose him. If they can come to an agreement that pays him $2.5 to 3.5 million per season, it could be a good deal for both parties.
Beyond these guys you are looking at Don Carey, Brandon McDonald, Drayton Florence, Jacob Lacey, Amari Spievey and Ricardo Silva all potentially hitting the bricks. Florence has been good, but he was probably nothing more than a stop-gap to begin with. Lacey has been awful and Spievey can't stay healthy. Silva seems to have the most potential, but he is still pretty raw.
Free Agents on Special Teams
The following players may have multiple roles, but they are primarily special teams players .
Kassim Osgood is a name that leaves a lot of people scratching their heads, but he is an important role player that would be hard to replace. The Detroit brass brought him in for one purpose, to make plays on special teams. That has been his M.O. during his career, and he has had a positive impact in shoring up a shaky special teams unit.
Jason Hanson is a tough decision to me. He clearly doesn't have the leg strength that he once did, but his accuracy is still one of the best of all-time. So do risk going into the season with a 43 year old right leg, or do you bring in a younger and more powerful option? If Hanson doesn't return, he will undoubtedly retire.
Stefan Logan was an excellent pick up when the Steelers cut him loose three years ago. But a lot can change in three years. Logan rarely shows the burst that made him one of the leagues most dangerous return men, and he has routinely struggled with making poor decisions in the return game and ball security in general. The Lions also hoped he could fill a Jahvid Best / Darren Sproles type of role on the offense, and it just didn't work. I was a big fan of Logan, but it is time to move on.
Don Muhlbach has been the Lions' long snapper for nearly a decade so it is hard to see him going anywhere, but be doesn't serve any other purpose so he could be replaced.
Lions' Releases
I really have an appreciate for what Nate Burleson, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and yes even Jeff Backus have brought to the table. I love the way that all three of them play the game. Not that they are elite players, but none of them complain or whine. They simply show up to work every day and give their best effort each and every time. But they are all costly and are getting up there in age. I am not a fan of the idea of getting rid of all three of them, but in doing so the Lions would save $11-12 million in cap space next year, with players that could potentially do as good a job or better. Their leadership will be missed, but perhaps it's time to look in a new direction for leadership anyways. There two other players that many fans would want to see on the chopping block as well, but for now, I will refrain from adding them to the list. Dominic Raiola and Brandon Pettigrew will continue to take heat from the disappointed fan base, but I am not sure they have adequate replacements in place for either of them at this point in time. Also, I am not sure they will find it with the small amount of cap space ($5.2m) they would free up from the move, via free agency.
Lions' Re-signings
So to simplify, I will recap the players that I feel the Lions should be able to resign in the offseason, along with some contract estimates for what they could reasonable expect on both sides. These values may are estimated off their previous contracts as well as expected market conditions.
If the Lions are able to do something similar to what I have outlined, by retaining these 15 players with new contracts and releasing Backus, Burleson and KVB, they would roughly be at $87.2 million dollars against the cap. This would allow them to retain a solid foundation to build upon for the next three years while still having around $33.8 million in cap room.
Coming Next! 2013 Detroit Lions Offseason Strategy: Attacking Free Agency
For the particulars on financials, the reported salary figures for the team and players were gathered from various sites including Spotrac, Sportscity and Rotoworld.
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